Well, it's been a bumpy ride recently, hasn't it? Much of the blogosphere is in a bit of a tizzy right now because McCain seems to have tied things up with Obama, and liberals with PTSD from elections past think they're staring another loss in the face.
One of the most clear-headed blog posts I've read was authored today by Chris Bowers (one of my favorite bloggers)...
I feel very frustrated right now because I have a difficult time
pinning down the cause of McCain's continued polling increase. Obama
peaked toward the end of June, and apart from the Democratic
convention, has been on a slow, downward trend ever since.
I want to know why this is the case, because I want to understand how
this trend can be reversed. It is only from that point that I believe I
can develop better ideas on what I can do personally to help positively
influence the result.
Please read the whole thing; I think it's an accurate statement of why so much angst is to be found even in some of the more veteran corners of the blogosphere at this point.
Chris lays out several possible reasons for why McCain seems to have pulled even (or even perhaps slightly ahead) in the polls. He points out that the idea McCain's negative attacks have been responsible doesn't really mesh with polling that finds Obama's favorability ratings have risen to this point. Several other reasons are listed, and none are satisfying.
My take on an answer to this dilemma is twofold.
First, the timing: the presidential campaign has just officially begun, and the electorate is still sharply divided. And, of course, we're still coming down off of the conventions.
Second, and more important, much of the polling right now indicates that McCain is favored over Obama on several issues. Some of this is the result of convention bounce, but even before the conventions, McCain was already polling favorably compared to Obama, again on several issues.
What this tells me is pretty straightforward.
First, despite the gut instinct in the blogosphere that Obama just needs to start opening up with both barrels, Obama's own read on things is likely the correct one: what's needed is an increased concentration on the issues. How to best do this is, of course, an open question (for example: Frank Lunz focus group work indicated McCain's "celebrity" ads didn't actually impact Obama's favorability ratings; rather, they predisposed the audience to believe the subsequent message on issues such as taxes, the economy, etc.).
Second, the debates may have a greater-than-average impact on public sentiment.
Certainly, I'm not saying that attacking isn't a good idea. And like many others, I'd like to see the Obama campaign make use of some of the low-hanging fruit (rape kits, anyone?) But flailing just to do something may not be the best approach.
In my opinion, Obama's got a good feel for the basics of where we are and how he needs to improve. And to me, that's a very encouraging sign. Moreover, eight weeks is a lifetime in presidential politics; recent elections have turned around in less than half that time. Things are basically tied, and based upon nearly all the news reporting at this point, Obama's in a better position. So let's not count our electoral votes before they're cast.
